NHL Free Agency Betting: Where Does Mitch Marner End Up?

The Mitch Marner narrative has changed dramatically, as prominent NHL reporter Elliotte Friedman reported this weekend that the right winger is presently “not engaged” in contract negotiations with the Toronto Maple Leafs, and all indications suggest he will depart when he becomes a free agent on July 1. 

Friedman holds significant credibility, so when bettors noticed the weekend post, their betting on Marner shifted accordingly. The newest development in the situation: Marner has today called off his yearly Marner Assist Foundation charity event set for July 10-11, due to uncertainty about his location. 

FanDuel has a “Mitch Marner Next Team” betting market, and when we looked last week, the Leafs were at +550, just after the Vegas Golden Knights (+300) as the top favorites. 

A brief glance on Monday reveals that the Leafs are no longer on the board. This morning features the Las Vegas Strip and the Golden Knights at +230, the Carolina Hurricanes at +470, the rebuilding Anaheim Ducks, with Joel Quenneville as their new head coach at +650, the Pittsburgh Penguins at +650, led by former Leafs GM Kyle Dubas in Pittsburgh, the Chicago Blackhawks at +750, and the Los Angeles Kings at +1000, completing the FanDuel list. 

Betting Analysts Favor the Golden Knights 

A trader from FanDuel informed Casino.org that “considering the betting activity, the leading three possible teams are the. Golden Knights, the Vegas. Toronto Maple Leafs, and the. LA Kings. 

So far, Vegas is the favorite, receiving 15% of the total bets on the team. 

From our perspective, the Golden Knights hold the advantage if Marner's priority is to secure a win immediately upon entering the free-agent market. 

At 28 years of age, he concluded the last season with 27 goals and 75 assists. Marner is an exceptional player and, many would say, the top free agent on the market this summer. However, during his nine years as a player in the NHL with the Leafs (chosen 4th overall in 2015), he has failed to achieve success in the playoffs. 

Marner’s Weaknesses 

Although Marner is an exceptional player, there are certain drawbacks associated with him. Some claim he lacks the height, while others think he succumbs to nerves when the playoff stakes rise. 

A few of the more sarcastic X posts in the ongoing Stanley Cup series between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers are contrasting Sam Bennett of the Panthers, who has scored 15 goals this spring (leading the NHL), with Marner, who has 13 playoff goals in his entire career. Bennett is likewise an unrestricted free agent this summer. 

PuckPedia reports that the Golden Knights possess US$9.6 million in cap space, and there are rumors concerning the health of top-4 defenseman Alex Pietrangelo for the 2026-27 season, possibly making him eligible for the long-term injury reserve list. This move would remove his salary from next season's budget and create additional room to pursue Marner, whose next contract is anticipated to surpass US$14 million in AAV. 

9 Seasons with the Maple Leafs 

Since their NHL debut in 2017, the Golden Knights have committed fully to their organization, achieving one Cup victory (2023) thus far. 

Regardless, as soon as Marner enters the market — whether through a sign-and-trade that allows the Leafs to receive assets while creating room for the Golden Knights to sign Marner, or if the Golden Knights make adjustments to free up cap space — a significant amount of effort remains to be undertaken. 

Marner going to the West Coast is logical. 

Toronto is a tough environment for hockey; the winters are lengthy and harsh, and Marner has been a key target of criticism aimed at the team for every postseason disappointment since 2015. Marner has a new baby and would understandably wish to escape as far from Toronto as he can. 

What is the situation with DraftKings? 

DraftKings has introduced a Marner market, with the current odds structured as follows: 

• Golden Knights +350
• Hurricanes +400
• Kings +600
• Ducks +700
• Mammoth +1000
• Panthers +1000
• Blackhawks +1200
• Leafs +2000